MANILA, Philippines  –  President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is scheduled to address the Association of Southeast Asian Nations on Nov. 15 as a guest of the Philippine chair. He will make a state visit and attend a business forum the day before, becoming the first Brazilian head of state to visit the Philippines, according to his office. The trip marks 80 years of diplomatic relations between the two countries.

A Trade Relationship With New Friction

Brazil applied in January to become a full ASEAN dialogue partner, an upgrade from its current sectoral status that would give Brasília a broader channel for regular talks with the bloc. Two-way trade topped $38 billion in 2025, making ASEAN Brazil’s fifth-largest trading partner, according to the Brazilian presidency.

A dispute over pork will give that diplomacy an immediate test. On Monday, Philippine officials announced a 60-day restriction on selected pork imports from several suppliers, including Brazil, to protect local hog farmers. Brazil’s meat industry association said it would join Lula’s delegation and press Manila to reverse the measure.

The Election’s Shadow

Lula won 51.8 percent of the vote in the Oct. 25 runoff against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who left for the United States days later. President Donald Trump called the election “a disgrace” and said Bolsonaro could stay in the United States as long as he wished. Independent observers described the vote as free and fair, Reuters reported.

Lula and Trump used last year’s ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur to open talks over U.S. tariffs. Both are expected in Manila this year, but their published schedules point to separate appearances, and a bilateral meeting remains unconfirmed.

Manila’s Own Agenda

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney plans to advance free-trade talks with ASEAN, and the Philippines expects U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres to attend. Japan, South Korea and China are also expected to be represented. Manila has signaled that it expects Chinese Premier Li Qiang, whose attendance Beijing has yet to confirm. For the Philippines, one of the summit’s biggest tests is whether it can move ASEAN and China closer to a binding South China Sea code of conduct. Negotiators remain divided over which waters it would cover and how it would be enforced.

Picture: AI Geerated